State of Fintech 2026: The Fintech Compounders

Hey Fintech Nerds 👋

What a year 2025 has been.

The GENIUS Act passed, Agentic Commerce became a thing, and prediction markets exploded onto the scene. Banks had another record year, but a handful of neobanks are now compounding and breathing down their neck. Against all of this, consumers in the West are still spending but quietly suffering from a cost-of-living crisis and the rise of financial nihilism.

To close out the year of Fintech Brainfood, I’ve once again collaborated with the incredible Jevgenijs Kazanins of Popular Fintech for a little holiday gift 🎁. The nerdiest of Fintech nerd gifts.

📣 Annual Rant: The State of Fintech 2025

👀 Highlights

The big names keep getting bigger. Fintech hyperscalers had a year, with Nubank over 127m customers, Klarna at 114m, and Revolut snapping at their heels at 65m.

This was the first AI-assisted Black Friday / Cyber Monday that really showed in the data.

But there are very few industry-specific foundation models driving earnings for companies in the same way it does for the Mag 7 companies. Stripe is the only example I could find.

Stablecoins found product market fit as the cross-border rail and corporate treasury option for payouts and pay-ins.

But far from disrupting banks, they had a banner year as M&A, IPOs, and the macro tailwinds all benefited. Citi and Wells are also in better positions to grow again.

Everyone wants to be a Neobank, as Robinhood, Klarna and Affirm all drive towards cards as a key growth lever

Prediction markets dominated the headlines as major Wall Street firms started to make strategic bets.

Yet the consumer housing data is a canary in the coal mine. Consumers no longer believe the 60/40 portfolio is the path to a comfortable retirement. This is a major problem creating political instability in the West as every incumbent is dislodged per election cycle.

Was this the coming-of-age year for open finance? Cash flow data is now used by Experian and FICO, and as ugly as it was, the data-sharing deal with banks does appear to have helped business as usual to resume.

We now have a market where neobanks are coming for mass-affluent, stablecoins are attacking the long-tail, and AI is unbundling the workflows of asset managers.

You’ll also find our 2026 predictions and some bonus thoughts on the market towards the end of the report.

Wherever you are, whatever you’re doing over the winter break, I hope it treats you well, and we get to meet soon. If I can ever help a fellow Fintech nerd, then just reply to this email and I’ll see what I can do.

I have to say a huge thank you to

• Jev, for being my partner in crime in this report. Your work is astonishing, sir.

• And, of course, Tempo* for being the most incredible, high-paced, dynamic place I’ve ever worked. We’re gonna have a massive 2026.

That's all for 2026, folks. 👋

Remember, if you're enjoying this content, please do tell all your fintech friends to check it out and hit the subscribe button :)

(1) All content and views expressed here are the authors' personal opinions and do not reflect the views of any of their employers or employees.

(2) All companies or assets mentioned by the author in which the author has a personal and/or financial interest are denoted with a *. None of the above constitutes investment advice, and you should seek independent advice before making any investment decisions.

(3) Any companies mentioned are top of mind and used for illustrative purposes only.

(4) A team of researchers has not rigorously fact-checked this. Please don't take it as gospel—strong opinions weakly held

(5) Citations may be missing, and I've done my best to cite, but I will always aim to update and correct the live version where possible. If I cited you and got the referencing wrong, please reach out